Coinbase Predicts Full-Scale Altcoin Season — What It Means, Sectors to Watch, and How to Prepare

The cryptocurrency market is no stranger to cycles of dominance and rotation. Bitcoin often leads the way in the early phases of a bull market, capturing headlines and liquidity. But seasoned traders know that eventually, the tide can shift. This shift, known as altcoin season, is when a broad set of cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin begin to outperform, sometimes dramatically.

In its latest market outlook, Cohttps://coredatabase.in/inbase Institutional suggests that the ingredients for a full-scale altcoin season are starting to come together. According to their research, we may be on the verge of a period where most major altcoins outperform Bitcoin over a sustained period.

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What is Altcoin Season?

Altcoin season — often shortened to “altseason” — refers to a sustained period when the majority of alternative cryptocurrencies post higher percentage gains than Bitcoin. It’s a shift in market dynamics where investor attention, liquidity, and speculation rotate away from Bitcoin toward other projects.

A popular rule of thumb is:

• Altcoin season is declared when 75% or more of the top 50 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the last 90 days.
• Bitcoin season is when the opposite is true, and BTC dominates performance charts.

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Coinbase’s Definition

Coinbase uses a breadth-based approach rather than focusing on a few high-performing outliers. They define “full-scale altcoin season” as the point where at least three-quarters of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin for three consecutive months.

This method avoids being misled by single-token rallies and focuses on broad market participation — an important hallmark of a true altseason.

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Why Coinbase Thinks Altseason is Coming

1. Altcoin Market Cap Has Doubled Since April 2025

Coinbase notes that the total market capitalization of altcoins (excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins) has roughly doubled in just a few months. While sharp pullbacks have occurred, the overall upward trajectory is a bullish sign.

2. Declining Bitcoin Dominance

Bitcoin dominance — the percentage of total crypto market cap held by BTC — is slipping from recent highs. Historically, declines in BTC dominance often signal or coincide with rising altcoin strength.

3. Macro Conditions Turning Supportive

The broader macroeconomic backdrop is also favorable. Rate cut expectations are building, liquidity conditions may improve, and risk appetite in markets generally is rising. Crypto tends to benefit from these shifts, and altcoins can outperform in risk-on environments.

4. Strong Institutional Narratives

Coinbase points out growing institutional interest in Ethereum, Layer-2 scaling solutions, and stablecoin infrastructure. These segments tend to lead the early stages of altcoin cycles before smaller-cap tokens begin to rally.

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Independent Altseason Indicators

Independent trackers that measure altcoin season using performance breadth are showing rising readings, though most have not yet crossed the formal “altseason” threshold. This supports Coinbase’s stance that we are approaching — rather than already in — a full-scale altseason.

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Likely Leaders in the Next Altseason

Ethereum and the Restaking Narrative

Ethereum is often the anchor of early altcoin rallies. Its liquidity depth, institutional acceptance, and ecosystem activity make it a safe entry point for capital rotating out of Bitcoin.

Layer-2 Scaling Solutions

Projects like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base are attracting developers and users due to faster transactions and lower costs. These chains benefit from Ethereum’s network effects while offering distinct advantages.

High-Throughput Layer-1s

Solana, Avalanche, Sui, and Aptos are examples of high-speed Layer-1 blockchains that may capture growth from gaming, DeFi, and social applications.

DeFi Protocols and RWAs

Decentralized exchanges, perpetual trading platforms, and protocols offering real-world asset tokenization could see inflows if on-chain activity spikes.

Data, Oracles, and Interoperability

Tokens like Chainlink or Cosmos can gain from increased cross-chain activity and the need for accurate, secure data feeds.

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Strategies for Navigating a Potential Altseason

1. Core-Satellite Approach
   • Core holdings: large-cap, liquid projects like ETH, SOL, MATIC.
   • Satellites: higher-risk, thematic plays in growth sectors.
2. Watch Breadth and Dominance
   • Rising breadth + falling BTC dominance favors alt exposure.
   • Falling breadth + rising dominance favors caution.
3. Position Sizing
   • Limit any single position to 2–8% of portfolio.
   • Rebalance periodically to lock in gains.
4. Avoid Crowded Trades
   • Be wary of tokens with sudden hype but no underlying user growth or revenue.
5. Laddered Profit-Taking
   • Pre-set profit levels to take partial profits and avoid emotional decision-making.

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Risks to the Altseason Scenario

• Macro Shocks: A sudden rise in inflation or a hawkish policy shift could derail risk assets.
• BTC Dominance Spike: Renewed Bitcoin rally could pull liquidity from altcoins.
• Regulatory Surprises: Negative regulatory events could impact altcoin liquidity.
• Narrative Fatigue: If leading sectors fail to deliver on promises, rotation may stall.

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How to Confirm Altseason Has Started

• Breadth Index reaches or exceeds 75% (top 50 outperforming BTC over 90 days).
• BTC Dominance trending down over weeks.
• Total Altcoin Market Cap making higher highs after corrections.
• Healthy Rotation from large caps to mid caps without reliance on microcaps.
• Real Catalysts driving rallies (mainnet launches, protocol upgrades, partnerships).

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What Coinbase Actually Said

In its August 2025 outlook, Coinbase stated:

“We think current market conditions now suggest a potential shift toward a full-scale altcoin season as we approach September.”

They emphasized that this is a probability-based forecast, not a certainty, and that even during favorable conditions, volatility and pullbacks are to be expected.

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Example Watchlist for Early Altseason

• Ethereum (ETH) – Institutional adoption, staking growth.
• Solana (SOL) – High throughput, developer ecosystem.
• Arbitrum (ARB) – Leading L2 with strong DeFi footprint.
• Avalanche (AVAX) – Subnet growth, RWA experiments.
• Chainlink (LINK) – Data feeds for multi-chain ecosystems.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Does altseason mean Bitcoin will drop?
No. Bitcoin can still rise during altseason; the key is that altcoins rise faster.

Q: How long do altseasons last?
They can last from a few weeks to several months, often starting with large caps before rotating into smaller caps.

Q: Is every altcoin a good buy during altseason?
No. Many low-quality projects still underperform even during strong alt markets.

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Conclusion

Coinbase’s forecast of a possible full-scale altcoin season in the coming weeks is based on rising altcoin breadth, declining Bitcoin dominance, favorable macro signals, and growing institutional engagement beyond BTC.

For investors, the takeaway is to prepare a strategy before momentum fully shifts. That means tracking market breadth, keeping a quality-focused core, and using disciplined risk management.

Altseason can produce some of the largest percentage gains in the crypto market — but also some of the sharpest reversals. The smartest approach is preparation over prediction.